larger than the sample normally used in high created pre-election national polls. with demo size

would normally yield a very small margin of error and would be very accurate.335 Furthermore,

such a poll would normally result in a close congruence version exit poll and official results.336

The sample size for Ohio was 1,963 voters, which is quite large for statistical purposes and

equivalent to the 2,000 person norm for most national polls.337 In addition, this year's poll

numbers were designed to account for absentee votes after a large number of absentee votes

contributed to the inaccurate projections of the Florida race in 2000. This year, Mitofsky and

Edison began telephone surveys in key states before the election to screen for absentee voters and

create an accurate estimate of their votes.338

While exit pollsters caution against using their results to predict election results,339 exit

polls can be extremely accurate, with only small variations from the official outcomes in

numerous elections. For example, in the three most recent national elections in Germany, exit

polls differed from the final official vote counts by an average of only 0.26%.340 Their results

have proven to be very accurate; correctly predicting the winner with no evidence of systematic

skew of the data.341 United States exit polls have also been precise. Brigham Young University

students' exit poll results for Utah in this election indicated 70.8% for Bush and 26.5% for Kerry.

The official results were 71.1% for Bush and 26.4% for Kerry.342

Moss v. Bush, No. 04-2088 ¶ 70.

Freeman at 10.

See Howard Kurtz, Networks Vow Caution in Calling Election; TV Executives Institute

Reforms to Avoid Repeat of Erroneous 2000 Pronouncement, WA S H . PO S T , Oct. 12, 2004, at A7.

Id. See also DA V I D W. MO O R E , TH E SU PER PO LLSTER S : HO W TH E Y ME A S U R E A ND

MA N I P U L A T E PU B L IC OP I N IO N I N AMER I C A 258 (Four Walls Eight Windows 2d ed. 1995) ("This

caution in projecting winners is now a Mitofsky trademark, one which has served him well in

most cases."). Mr. Moore is managing editor of the Gallup Poll.

Freeman at 7.

Freeman at 8.

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