Bush's Fallacious Bounce

Firstly, the post-convention Bush bounce in the polls was clearly was inconsequential because it didn�t meet the 15-percentage point mark that the GOP pulled out of its buttocks before the Democratic convention to imply that whatever Kerry�s increase in the polls, it was inconsequential. Bluster makes good wrestling, and apparently, good politics, but it�s still bullshit when it comes down to it. A 15-percentage point bounce after a convention is extreme and to imply it�s the norm is just grade school baseball taunting and bragging. Unfortunately, bravado works when your target audience is jocks or wannabe jocks, and that�s who Bush is talking to. That, and the ill-informed, who have no idea that the typical post-convention bounce is about 5-10 percentage points on the outside.

Apparently by their own bragadaccio, even Bush�s most extreme 10-point reported bounce reported from a Newsweek poll apparently didn�t even get him to first base in the homecoming game.

But the real issue is that none of the polls released after the convention actually represent much in the sense of accuracy; just headlines and talking points for GOP spokespeople and water cooler Republicans. According to a very recent article in the moderately conservative magazine Economist, clearly part of the liberal media, the Gallup, Newsweek, and Time Magazine polls are misleading, to say the least, because not only were the polls taken during the Republican convention and reported afterwards implying a post-convention bounce, but the methodology of all of them were pretty shoddy.

The Time and Gallup polls surveyed likely voters (likely in the opinion of pollsters). But polls of registered voters are usually considered more accurate. The margin among registered voters was lower: eight points according to Time and one point according to Gallup. Newsweek�s poll, also among registered voters, used an odd sample�38% Republicans, 31% each for Democrats and Independents, when current party registration has Democrats with 33% and Republicans with 29%. All three measures may exaggerate the size of Mr. Bush�s lead. But they do not invent it. Other polls from the same period show the president ahead, albeit in a much closer race�by two points, according to Zogby, and one, according to both the American Research Group and The Economist�s own poll, conducted by YouGov, a British polling firm.

So what this all says is that the poll showing the largest bounce was the most inaccurately and irresponsibly taken, that the two largest bounce-indicating polls polled unrepresentative people, and that the real bounce is about 1-2% post convention. Of course, all you�ll hear is that Bush has a double-point lead, but don�t believe it for a moment. It�s BUSHIT plain and simple, and typical Karl Roving�business as usual. So don�t buy it.

The daily Rasmussen Reports poll actually shows Kerry ahead approximately 46%-48% as of September 9th. Did you hear anything about that? I sure didn�t. Liberal media, my sexy ass.

So the moral is don�t lose heart, don�t stay home depressed, know that the right is lying as usual, playing more dirty tricks to win popular opinion and collect those voters who think it�s a football game and want to be on the winning side. Get out there and go door to door. Talk to everyone. Tell them these polls are fallacious, and why. And talk about why Kerry would make a better President, even though he might not be your dream boy.

When the alternative is misrepresentative, dirty-trick making, war-mongering, tax-cutting, say one thing do another so-called �compassionate conservatism,� the choice is clear. Kerry-Edwards is a much needed breath of fresh air in the White House.

TALKING POINT:

And while we�re on it, every time you mention Bush, mention �say one thing, do the opposite.� That needs to be Bush�s tagline. Just like they�ve tried to peg Kerry with an inaccurate but sticky title �flip-flopper� just by saying it enough, we need to say this. And it�s far more powerful that �flip-flopper� because it�s TRUE. �Flip-flopping� is a misrepresentation of Kerry�s appreciation of complexity. Kerry really does need to get his head out in the fresh air and just say �YES� or �NO� once in a while. But at least he understands that black and white are just the ends of a spectrum of not just gray, but billions of colors, shades, and hues.

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